There has been a stellar rise for the Indian markets this far in calendar year 2021 (CY21) with the S&P BSE Sensex surging over 19 per cent. The gain in mid-and small-cap indices on the BSE has been sharper with both these indexes surging around 38 per cent and 54 per cent, respectively during this period. Rampant spread of Covid pandemic's Delta variant and the ensuing lockdown and mobility curbs across India, rising prices key commodities, including crude oil and its impact on inflation, possibility of tightening of policy stance by major global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) have been some of the key headwinds that the markets successfully negotiated during this period.
The rupee depreciated further by 13 paise to hit a new life-time closing low of 82.30 against the US dollar on Friday as a firm American currency and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and elevated crude oil prices sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 82.19, then fell further to 82.43. It finally settled at an all-time low of 82.30 against the American currency, registering a decline of 13 paise over its previous close.
IndusInd Bank was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, falling over 5 per cent, followed by HDFC, Axis Bank, PowerGrid, SBI, Bajaj Finserv and Bharti Airtel.
Citing the massive surge in Omicron infections and the resultant impact on overall economic activities in the March quarter, Swiss brokerage UBS Securities has revised downwards its India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.1 per cent from 9.5 per cent earlier. However, UBS Securities does not see the third wave impact extending to the next financial year as it has revised upwards its real GDP forecast to 8.2 per cent, up from 7.7 per cent earlier, expecting the real GDP growth to remain well above the historical average. The World Bank pegs it at 8.3 per cent, unchanged from its June assessment, saying the recovery is not broad-based yet.
The rupee appreciated 7 paise to 79.74 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday as a positive trend in domestic equities supported the local unit. However, a strong American currency overseas and forex outflows restricted the rupee's gain, dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 79.72 against the American dollar, then went lower to trade at 79.74 against the greenback in early deals, registering a gain of 7 paise over the last close.
The suicide note also stated about "foul language" used by people associated with a cooperative society and threat by lenders (finance firms), a police officer said on Monday.
Indian rupee is likely to test 76-76.50 levels as a relatively strong greenback, boiling crude prices and COVID headwinds deepen the depreciation bias for the domestic currency, according to experts. One of the significantly-hit Asian currency in recent months amid uncertain economic times, rupee is expected to see a consolidation in the vicinity of the current level before being pulled towards the depreciation bias. While the equity market has been surging with occasional blips, the rupee has mostly been weak against the US dollar in recent months.
Ajit Mishra, vice president, Research, Religare Broking, answers your queries
Global trends, WPI inflation data for April and the ongoing quarterly earnings of corporates would be the major driving factors for the stock markets, analysts said. Investors would also keep a tab on the movement of foreign institutional investors who are on a selling spree in the domestic equity market for the past many days. "Inflation concern and monetary tightening across the globe are key concerns for the equity markets. "Equity markets are under the strong grip of bears however they look extremely oversold and due for a pullback rally.
Engineering major BHEL rebounded from its day's lows to end around 1% higher.
BofA Securities has revised its year-end Nifty target from its earlier projection of 16,000 to 14,500 now - down over 6 per cent from the current levels. Fast tightening monetary conditions, slowing growth/fears of US recession and the likely Nifty EPS (earnings per share) cuts, BofA Securities said, are the key headwinds for the markets in the near-term. However, clarity on macro and monetary policy outlook in the US/India, it said, is the silver lining that could see markets bottom out by August/September 2022.
Falling valuations, slowing funding rounds and faltering investor sentiment seem to have prompted many start-ups to lay off employees in a bid to conserve cash. The latest to do so is SoftBank-backed Cars24, a leading e-commerce platform for pre-owned vehicles, which has laid off over 600 staff, according to sources in the know. The move, they said, is aimed at conserving cash amid cautious investor sentiment and a slowdown in funding.
Domestic equities will be mainly driven by global market trends, foreign institutional investors' movement and developments around new Covid variant Omicron this week, according to analysts. Markets traded under pressure last week following weak global cues and overall investor sentiment remained downbeat throughout the week, they observed. "Global markets, Omicron variant, dollar index and FIIs' behaviour will be key factors to drive the market this week," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd. One major event last week was US Federal Reserve's announcement that it will end bond-buying from March, and it also signalled starting rate hike cycle thereafter.
'India has entered an economic super-cycle driven by a housing cycle turnaround.'
Gold prices may trade higher in the coming days because of weaker dollar and speculations of US Fed rate cut.
Economists warn of the impact that a Fed rate rise could have on emerging economies.
Macro-economic data from China and minutes of the US Federal Reserve's last meeting caused the turmoil as stocks tumbled around the globe.
Investors have lost over Rs 5.55 lakh crore in four days of declines in the domestic equity markets. Rising domestic COVID-19 cases and selling in RIL and banking stocks dragged down the 30-share BSE Sensex by 562.34 points or 1.12 per cent to 49,801.62 on Wednesday. In four days, the benchamark has fallen by 1,477.89 points or 2.88 per cent. The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies has tanked by Rs 5,55,400.52 crore in four days to reach Rs 2,03,71,252.94 crore.
Experts say companies wanting to launch IPOs will have to scale back their expectations given the fall in valuations.
He said cheap valuations, improving sentiment and the ongoing reform momentum coupled with increased transparency due to the internet are driving investors to the Dalal Street.
As if wanting to be an antidote to the coronavirus pandemic, the Indian stock market adorned carnival robes in 2021 with a tsunami of liquidity unleashed by global central banks coupled with supportive domestic policies and the world's largest vaccination drive sparking off a world-beating rally on Dalal Street, despite bouts of uneasiness over fizzy valuations. While the wider economy shuttled between recovery and relapse, dictated by multiple mutations of the virus, equity market benchmarks appeared headed in just one direction -- skywards. The dizzying upward journey has added a whopping Rs 72 lakh crore during 2021 to investors' wealth, measured as the cumulative value of all listed shares in the country, taking it to nearly Rs 260 lakh crore.
Bajaj Finserv was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying around 7 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance, HDFC, L&T, ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma and NTPC. On the other hand, Tech Mahindra, ITC and M&M were the laggards.
India's largest cement firm, Ultratech Cement, has joined the race to acquire the Holcim stake in Ambuja Cements and its subsidiary, ACC. UltraTech - part of the Aditya Birla Group - submitted a non-binding bid on Wednesday. Swiss multinational Holcim, which manufactures building material, is exiting India by selling its 63.19% stake in Ambuja Cements. According to banking sources, UltraTech has submitted a plan to Holcim, outlining divestiture details that would meet the norms set by anti-trust body Competition Commission of India.
'Our competitiveness with China is very important.' 'If the exchange rate depreciates, it is good for us because it helps in our competitiveness.'
From the pandemic shocks to state polls to global trends, a raft of sentiment drivers are expected to steer the Indian stock market in 2022 after a historic year of massive investor returns and milestones. The Union Budget, which will be closely watched for further reform moves, and quarterly earnings of corporates will be among the developments on investors' radar amid global central banks moving towards tighter interest regime in the wake of inflationary pressures. The year 2021 was rewarding in a big way for equity investors.
ONGC was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying around 6 per cent, followed by IndusInd Bank, L&T, UltraTech Cement, Titan, SBI and NTPC. NSE Nifty settled 32.10 points up at 14,707.80.
The US Federal Reserve has said economic activity is improving while deciding to continue with the near-zero interest rate regime to bolster the economy.
Penalty must act as a deterrent. If it is too low, it could encourage the regulated entities to lap up penalty instead of complying with the norms, suggests Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
RBI would get the comfort of meeting its 8 per cent January Consumer Price Index-based inflation target, BofA-ML said, adding that 'we expect the RBI to cut 75 bp in 2015 from February with inflation on course to 6 per cent in January 2016'.
Rising for the fourth straight day, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty settled marginally higher after a choppy session on Friday, tracking mixed global trends amid uncertainties on the geopolitical front. The BSE Sensex opened weak and declined 414.44 points to 55,049.95 in opening deals. But within minutes, it pared all its losses and jumped 369.56 points to 55,833.95. Facing volatility, the index finally settled at 55,550.30, higher by 85.91 points or 0.15 per cent.
'There will be a series of rate hikes, but the pace and quantum will depend on how the economy in the US and the rest of the world behave.'
The comment was in response to a June 19 Reuters story citing sources with knowledge of the matter as saying that India planned to clear some oil payments to Iran through the United Arab Emirates central bank.
In August, domestic equity markets garnered one of the highest foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, despite the US Federal Reserve standing firm on unwinding its stimulus measures to control inflation. FPIs pumped in over Rs 51,000 crore ($6.4 billion) in August, the most since December 2020 and the third-highest tally since March 2020-the month the Covid-19 pandemic roiled global markets. This was the second consecutive month of positive foreign flows. In the preceding nine months, FPIs had yanked out over $32 billion or Rs 2.2 trillion.
The market breadth was firm. Out of 2,933 stocks traded , 1,685 stocks advanced compared to 1,136 declined on BSE.
Manchester United forward Marcus Rashford has raised over 100,000 pounds ($124,410) to ensure vulnerable children who rely on free school meals every day are still fed now schools are closed due to the coronavirus lockdown.
Ajit Mishra, vice president, Research, Religare Broking, answers your queries.
On the Sensex chart, Axis Bank, Titan, IndusInd Bank, HDFC Bank, Dr Reddy's, HDFC and Asian Paint were major losers.
IndusInd Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying over 4 per cent, followed by SBI, Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank, Sun Pharma, HDFC and PowerGrid.
The broader markets ended negatively with mid-caps and small-caps shedding 0.5 per cent on the BSE.
'Avoid going overweight on gold. But maintain a 10 per cent allocation via sovereign gold bonds,' Bajaj Capital MD Sanjiv Bajaj tells Sarbajeet K Sen.
